Let’s tackle this first. Given our penchant for money, let me ask you about units. What is the smallest scale at which it you would separate one economic activity from another? Would $1,000 be enough to make you sit up and think about changing the way you earn it? $5,000? $10,000? Interestingly enough, $10,000 is the value I give to 1 t of in-shell nut. How do I get there? By assigning an average kernel percentage of 25%, and a sale value of $5 per 100g. The latter is close enough to the cost for a baglet of black walnut pieces in US supermarkets (Giant; $5.99/5 oz., 6 Sept 08). While some may say 25% kernel percentage is high, it approximates my 2007 cracking results (22% average), and if we were able to add other income streams than just kernel (e.g. shell), effectively we could achieve more than 25%. No matter. One tonne is what I estimate my 2008 in-shell yield to be. Can I extract and sell enough to realize $10,000 before costs? Interesting numbers.
I personally believe that the only way to each such production levels reliably is by establishing black walnut plantations of 1000 trees upwards. Why do I think this? Because nut production is dependent upon adequate tree canopy development to sustain it, and I think it is better to contemplate 1000 young trees producing 1 kg ( a model built on common black walnut seedlings) than 100 young trees producing 10 kg or 10 young trees producing 100 kg (models built on more expensive grafted selections). Even grafted trees may need 15-20 years to develop canopies that will sustain high production levels. The trees don’t all have to be planted at once. As C.F. Hostetter, of the delightfully-named
“In 1926 I hazarded a planting of 150 trees, the next year I was steamed up to the place where I decided I should plant more, and then each year following, until my last planting this year, gives me one thousand thrifty growing black walnuts…..”
It is clear that early efficiencies in kernel extraction are going to be low. It is also clear that growing plantations will produce higher yields with time. We will have investment costs in technology. These are factors that we need to build into our calculations. But none will work unless we base our livelihood on units of thousands of trees. Does this sound unachievable? Not at all. We have about 2,500 trees on our farm, and are still hazarding more planting. We hope to leave the $10,000 mark well behind quite soon.
[1] Hostetter, C.F. Developing a Thousand Tree Nut Grove, Northern Nutgrowers Annual Report, 1933, p43.
No comments:
Post a Comment